Will Jagan repeat 1983?

 The Byelection in Andhra Pradesh on June 12 will decide the fate of congress in State; and authority over central leadership in Delhi as Andhra Pradesh contributes 42 Lok Sabha seats .

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                                          Is congress afraid of Jagan Mohan  Reddy ,or it feels that ot will be able to get Jagan  afraid by CBI?  Will  upcoming corruption allegation  on Jagan Reddy by CBI  boomerang  congress ?or  will it  really give people a sense that YSR’s son is really corrupt whom they consider their messiah as CBI accuses him of amassing wealth disproportionate to his known sources of income during his late father Y S Rajasekhara Redd’s tenure as chief minister between 2004 and 2009.Will jagan be able to give congress smashing  reply by sweeping june 12 by election? Within a couple of days after Jagan’s arrest , Jagan’s mother Y S Vijayalakshmi picked up the baton left by his son and led the campaign from the front. Jagan’s mother is accompanying her daughter Sharmila in electioneering .Political observer have started comparing Vijayalakshmi and sharmila with Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her daughter Priyanka Gandhi .  Jagan’s mother is getting sympathy from the voters. what is particularly attracting the crowds to her meeting is the presence of Sharmila.

Whatever the  current situation in ANDHRA PRADESH is , its akin to 1983 lets see how?  Byelection which will be held on June 12 ,one for Lok Sabha seat and 16 for Assembly seat are as crucial as the 1983 general election were, which saw the emergence of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by N T Rama Rao who was an actor turned politician. Andhra Pradesh was carved out of Madras state in 1953. Since the state came in existence congress ruled Andhra Pradesh from 1953 to 1983 but their pleasure was marred by N T Rama Rao who floated TDP in 1982 and  sweeped election in 1983 by winning over 200 seats in the 294 seat State Assembly against 56 seats by the congress party. To win the assembly election  against congress was not a cake walk for NTR(N T Rama Rao)in that time. To promote the Telgu Desam Party ,Rama Rao travelled across the state of Andhra Pradesh ,crossing all the districts ,in his van dubbed ‘’Chaitanya Ratham’’(Chaitanya means bringing to life or movement).With his son Hari Krishna as a driver NTR travelled for 75,000 km during his 1982 campaign .With TDP tasting a landslide victory , congress received a set back as it was ousted from the power after 30 years.

Currently 2012,N T RAMA RAO ‘s  ’Chaitanya Ratham’’ yatra is being compared to ‘’Odarpu Yatra’’  Which helped Jagan Mohan garner the support of his father’s base. In Odarpu yatra he travelled for 265 days, met 700 families in 5152 villages, 114 towns and 13 districts ,covering more than 17,430 km of the state which gathered him huge support. On June 12 the byelection will be held on 18 assembly seats -16 of which were with  congress so the congress’s prestige is at stake as it was in 1983.  June 12 , byelection, to an extent will clear the picture how much bigger following  YSR congress has in Andhra Pradesh. it is also a semifinal before 2014 final. Inspite of several road blocks in way ,there are other reasons as well which are giving hard time to UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi.  Jagan’s growing popularity in state is one of them. Here are few alarming bells for congress-

    Post Jagan’s arrest , one MLA has already quit the congress to join YSR congress. On May 30, Bobbili MLA S.K Ranga Rao resigned .

    Things can only get worse for the congress. Andhra Pradesh is crucial for UPA: it contributed 29 seats to UPA -1 and 33 to UPA-2.

    The Congress government in the state is also its only single –party regime in south India .Its fight for the survival for the congress.

      With congress in office for the past eight years, there is a strong feeling of anti-incumbency that goes well beyond the Jagan factor .the votes will split between the TDP and the YSR Congress. the Scheduled Castes ,especially the Malas, and the  Christians are also backing the YSR congress.

When Jagan Mohan Reddy undertook his yatra he was dictated by Congress high command  to give up the  yatra  in mid way but he remained defiant. In between ,the jagan promoted Sakshi tv channel  and sakshi newspaper ,which had been continuously criticizing the then  Andhra Prdesh Chief Minister and congress leadership at Delhi. Ever since YSR died in a helicopter crash on September 2,2009 , differences have multiplied between Jagan and Congress President Sonia Gandhi .He wanted to be Chief minister .She wanted him to wait .When politics stepped in so did the CBI. The agency did not investigate any case when YSR did all that jagan is accused of doing now. Congress’s legislator P. Shankar Rao filed a PIL in Andhra Pradesh High Court seeking a CBI probe into Jagan’s assets on November 21,2010 days later,he became the state’s handlooms and textiles minister.

If the claims are concerned jagan’s assets rose from Rs 36 lakh in 2003-04 to Rs 356 crore , a 1000 fold increase within a space of eight years. Jagan may be guilty of disproportionate assets but the question is why CBI and Congress had not pointed finger at Jagan mohan reddy when his father was alive? The noose tightened more harder on Jagan’s neck  when he parted ways from congress and decided to float his own party.

The thing which has to be observed is –will jagan get emotional support from  voters  in the name of his father’s death and his recent arrest by CBI? Or will people vote for congress ignoring YSR’s contribution to build and flourish the state from a long time, who really brought the poors of Andhra to justice?  But the question remains same will jagan repeat 1983?

 Sundaram Chaurasia,9873702300,

 sundaramchaurasia@gmail.com           

 …………………………………………..(all the suggestions and abuses are welcome)

Thank You.



Ex-IIMC-IAN, journalist in News Express TV Channel!